MLB Draft 2024 report card: Keith Law dissects every NL team's selections (2024)

With the 2024 MLB Draft now in the books, here’s my look at each National League team’s draft class. (The American League version of this piece is here.) I focus on the top 10 rounds since those are the picks that count toward each team’s bonus pool. Players taken after the 10th round may be paid up to $150,000 without counting against the bonus pool, so the best prospects taken in Rounds 11 through 20 rarely end up signing.

The number in parentheses after each player’s name indicates the round in which he was taken; a letter (A, B, or C) after a number indicates that it was a supplemental pick between rounds, either for losing a free agent or from the competitive balance lottery. I do assume that all players taken in the top 10 rounds will sign, although each year there are roughly two to five players who don’t for various reasons. I also skipped over college seniors who were probably selected as money-saver picks, agreeing to bonuses under their slot figures so their teams can go over slot for other players, or other players who appear to be more about under-slot bonuses than major-league potential.

Finally, I don’t grade drafts. I think that whole idea is absurd. The best I can offer is to tell you that I think teams did well or not well based on what I know about the players available at those picks, and in general I prefer to talk about specific picks than try to sum up months of work for each scouting department in a pithy line or two.

(Note: Scouting grades are on a 20-80 scale.)

Arizona Diamondbacks

I heard back in March or April that the D-Backs wouldn’t let Slade Caldwell (1) get past them, and that was correct, as they took the diminutive outfielder from Jonesboro, Ark., with the 29th pick. Caldwell earns raves for his feel to hit and his makeup, apparently blowing teams away with his interviews at the MLB Draft Combine. He can really run and hit and probably sticks in center field — the issue is his arm, not his range — but scouts couldn’t decide if he had enough power to profile as an everyday guy or better, or if he’d end up a tweener because he really doesn’t offer any projection. Betting on makeup and a hit tool doesn’t always work — Nick Madrigal had those as well, and he’s back in the minors at age 27 — but I am willing to bet Caldwell gets to enough strength to be a regular.

Outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt (PPI) ranked 11on my final board but slid to pick 31, outstanding value for the D-Backs given his hit/power combination and the potential to unlock even more in-game power if they give him any kind of stride at the plate. I heard after the pick that some teams were worried about the torn ACL that ended his 2023 summer on the Cape after just four games. That’s two top-15 talents for Arizona even though they didn’t pick at all until 29.

Shortstop JD Dix (CBA) is a switch-hitter with great balance and bat speed in both of his swings, with a better swing left-handed, and should get to average power at least. He had labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder last fall and his arm strength hasn’t come all the way back yet, so his position is still a question. If he gets it back to 100 percent, he’ll stay at short and should be a 55 defender. He’s committed to Wake Forest.

Puerto Rican catcher Ivan Luciano (2) boosted his stock at the combine, both on the field and in interviews. He’s a left-handed-hitting catcher with a great build for the position, while at the plate he has a short swing for contact without much power. He’s one of the youngest players to be drafted this year as he won’t turn 18 until the week of Thanksgiving.

Right-hander Daniel Eagen (3) is the highest-drafted player in the history of Presbyterian College. He saw a velocity spike this year to 92-95 and throws two breaking balls, a plus curveball and a 50/55 slurve that has a similar shape. He needs to improve his changeup to start but he has the delivery and control to stay in that role. Shortstop Tytus Cissell (4) was a surprise here as he didn’t look ready to face pro pitching. He is a plus runner and excellent athlete, but he’s going to need a lot of work at shortstop and his timing at the plate isn’t good. He’s committed to Missouri.

Indiana right-hander Connor Foley (5) sat 95-97 and touched 99 in his last start of the year against the eventual national champions Tennessee. His very high arm slot puts good ride on the fastball but makes it hard for him to control it. He’s got a 45 slider at best with an average changeup. Right-hander Mason Marriott (6) was in Baylor’s rotation the last two years but walked 12.5 percent of batters he faced and gave up 7.4 runs per 9 innings, so he may need to move to relief. It’s an arm-heavy delivery without much deception but he’s up to 95 with tight rotation on a downer curveball. I just hope he gets to use the concierge lounge.

Lefty Travis Garnett (8) walked 22 in 27 innings this spring for William & Mary, which is a huge improvement over 2023, when he walked seven in one inning for Maryland and then 12 more in eight innings in the Appalachian League. It’s legitimate stuff and he comes from a near sidearm slot, rifling the ball into the general vicinity of the catcher, and he did strike out a third of the guys he faced this year, so there is something here, even if the odds are very much not in his favor.

Atlanta

Atlanta led off their draft with the top high school pitching prospect of 2024, Cam Caminiti (1), a lefty from Arizona whose name might be familiar because his cousin won the NL MVP award back before Cam was born. He’s a very athletic pitcher who was also a solid high school hitter and has been up to 97 with a plus-plus changeup and a breaking ball that’s gone from a non-factor to an above-average pitch. His delivery works and he’s mostly online to the plate, with solid command for his age as well. He’s risky because he’s a teenage pitcher. If you’re going to swim in that pool, though, he’s the best guy to take in this draft.

Vanderbilt left-hander Carter Holton (2) pitched like a second-rounder or better most of the year but flopped at the finish, getting bombed in his last regular-season start with his fastball down a full grade, then making one relief appearance two weeks later where his velocity was back but he struggled to throw strikes. When he’s right, he’s got a plus changeup and a solid four-pitch mix, generally better against right-handers than lefties but capable enough against both to project as a fourth starter.

Indiana right-hander Luke Sinnard (3) missed the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Prior to the elbow injury, the 6-foot-8, 250-pound starter would sit 92-94, touching 96, with a hard cutter up to 90 and a solid curveball. He was very flyball-prone and gave up 15 homers in 86 innings, although that was the only real blemish on his resume. Miami left-hander Herick Hernandez (4) comes right over the top with 91-93, and that arm slot is probably why left-handed hitters had a field day with him even though he can spin two solid breaking balls. There’s no deception here and he doesn’t have even average control to help mitigate it. He won’t turn 21 until August.

Atlanta then took a pair of high schoolers who I presume will get over-slot bonuses before they switched to college seniors for rounds 7-10. Nick Montgomery (5) is a catcher, nominally, but is at the top end of the scale for the position as he’s listed at 6-4, 210. He’s power-over-hit but doesn’t have great bat speed and those long levers translate into a long swing as well. He’s committed to Arizona State and turns 19 in November. Right-hander Ethan Bagwell (6) is also a big kid, listed at 6-4, 230, with a long arm action he doesn’t repeat and some head violence at release. He touched 97 in his first outing of the year but didn’t repeat it and his stuff tapered off. He does have a low release height and gets high spin on his sweeper.

They did take some interesting flyers after Round 10, which could boost their draft, but based on the 10 guys they’re almost certainly signing, I don’t think this is a great group even with such a strong first-rounder.

Chicago Cubs

Florida State third baseman Cam Smith (1) remade himself as a prospect last offseason, improving his body and his swing to go from a power-over-hit guy who was headed for first base to a guy who might stick at third or profile well in an outfield corner and has a much better chance to hit. His bat speed has improved and he’s looser at the plate, hitting .387/.488/.654 this spring, including .368/.460/.692 in the very strong ACC.

Cole Mathis (2) is a bat-first infielder, listed as a third baseman but will almost certainly end up at first. He makes very hard contact, with excellent batted-ball data to back it up and strong plate discipline, including a low in-zone whiff rate — that is, he hits strikes when he swings at them. He’s pitched as well but an elbow issue kept him off the mound this spring, and his future was probably in the batter’s box anyway.

Shortstop Ronny Cruz (3) only recently moved to Florida from the Dominican Republic, and his spring started late as he was recovering from knee surgery, so he was probably under-scouted for a south Florida kid. He’s young in age (turning 18 in late August) and body, but extremely projectable with loose, quick hands, so the ball comes off his bat quite well even though he’s barely begun to fill out. He’s committed to the University of Miami.

Nevada high school shortstop Ty Southisene (4) is small, listed at 5-9, 170, but he swings hard and contact quality shouldn’t be an issue. He’s an above-average runner with outstanding baseball instincts, likely to stay at shortstop and play at least solid-average defense. His game power is more likely to be doubles than homers, but he should drive the ball more than enough to be valuable. He did turn 19 the week before the draft, so he’s got a couple of risk factors in the age and size that say he’s got lower probability than his peers.

USD catcher Ariel Armas (5) is a plus defender with a 70 arm, showing good bat-to-ball skills without any power. He hit .299/.399/.429 this year for the Toreros, with just a 13.6 percent strikeout rate. He could be a longtime backup even if it’s just an empty batting average at the plate.

Right-hander Ryan Gallagher (6) returned this spring after missing 2023 due to Tommy John surgery and was outstanding for UC-Santa Barbara, posting a 2.22 ERA with a 7.1 percent walk rate and 27.3 percent strikeout rate. He’s 90-92 from a high three-quarters slot with good ride up top on the four-seamer, with an above-average slider and plus changeup. Part of his success this year was allowing just three homers in 89 innings, but he’s an extreme flyball pitcher and I doubt that low home-run rate lasts over a larger sample. His teammate Ivan Brethowr (6) is listed at 6-6, 250, with plus power but a questionable hit tool and trouble covering his huge strike zone. He’s played mostly right field as an amateur but he’s a well below-average runner and is probably a DH.

Cincinnati Reds

As usual, the Reds have one of my favorite draft classes — even though they passed on my No. 1 player with their first pick. Instead of taking Charlie Condon, the Reds took the best pitcher in the draft, Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns (1), who led Division I in strikeouts with 30 more than any other pitcher. Burns works with a plus fastball that’s been up to 100 and a 70 slider. He gets huge induced vertical break on the fastball and the slider has huge, late tilt, so he works primarily with those two pitches, although he has a 55 curveball and a straight changeup that’s probably a 45. There’s a little violence to the delivery and his high three-quarters slot isn’t ideal, but he’s been healthy all three years in college and throws plenty of strikes. He looks like a No. 2 starter.

Shortstop Tyson Lewis (2) had some first-round buzz as a toolsy athlete who’ll stay at short and shows plus power and running speed. He’s a left-handed hitter who stays balanced through contact and lofts the ball well, although his swing can get grooved and his pitch recognition isn’t great. He could be a 20/20 guy at shortstop with above-average to plus defense.

LSU righty Luke Holman (CBB) lost about 2 mph this spring as someone drastically shortened his arm stroke, adding to his deception at the cost of stuff. He had a great spring regardless, striking out a third of the batters he faced, with an average fastball and above-average slider and curve. I’d like to see the Reds get him back to the delivery he had in 2023 when he was still at Alabama, which might reduce his deception but give him back some velocity and I think improve his durability as well. It’s fourth-starter material.

Northeastern outfielder Mike Sirota (3) came out of the fall as a potential top-10 pick, offering tools, athleticism, and feel to hit, but it all fell apart in the spring as he started extremely slowly, making less contact and even running slower, and by the time he started to turn things around clubs had shifted their attention elsewhere. He did finish very strongly, hitting .358/.522/.691 over his last 23 games, after his awful weekend at Towson where I saw him (because this is all about me, obviously). Despite the poor overall showing, he did make a lot of hard contact, and at least some of the slow start was bad luck, in addition to what looks like a case of draft-itis.

I thought Peyton Stovall (4) was a borderline first-rounder in this draft because I believe he’s going to hit. Injuries marred his sophom*ore year at Arkansas but he raked this year, hitting .340/.409/.535 with strong batted-ball data. I wish he walked more and he’s not a great defender at second, but his swing was one of the best I saw all spring, not that far behind JJ Wetherholt’s, for producing consistent, hard, line-drive contact. I think it’s high-average with maybe 12-15 homers, although he’s going to have to lay off some of the pitches out the zone that he’s been able to put into play in college.

Lefty Tristan Smith (5) has big velocity and a ton of deception from his cross-body delivery, coming from a low three-quarters slot that should make him tougher on lefties, although this spring he had a reverse platoon split. His slider and changeup are both average at best, and guys with this kind of delivery often end up with either control or injury trouble.

Jacob Friend (6) became a regular catcher last year when Davidson’s starter, Michael Carico (now in the Cubs system), was out with a broken hamate bone, and did it well enough for the Reds to take him at the position. He’s a very good athlete who’s previously played some center field. He’s an average runner with a 55 arm, with the agility to stick back there with more work on the fundamentals like blocking. He’s a disciplined hitter with plenty of pull power, but he’s never hit for much average and he struggles to catch up to good velocity.

UC-Irvine outfielder Myles Smith (7) had a breakout year at the plate, hitting .401/.533/.637 with far more walks than strikeouts, with a contact-oriented approach that doesn’t produce much hard contact or power. He’s a junior but already turned 22 shortly before the draft. He’s most likely a fourth outfielder given the lack of power and limitation to a corner. Indiana State right-hander Luke Hayden (8) is up to 97 with maybe a 55 slider, but he doesn’t throw strikes and has some violence in the delivery that almost certainly pushes him to the bullpen.

Colorado Rockies

Georgia outfielder Charlie Condon (1) was the top player on my draft board this year and ended up at the third pick, where the Rockies happily snapped him up. He won and more than earned the Golden Spikes Award this year, setting the BBCOR-era record for home runs in a season and showing outstanding bat speed, easy power, and defensive versatility, as he played a capable center field and has some history at third base. He may end up in right field in the end, but it’s a 30-homer bat — probably 40 at Coors — with patience and defensive value. If there’s a player with MVP upside in this draft, I think it’s him.

Iowa right-hander Brody Brecht (CBA) gave up football to focus on baseball this year and showed first-round stuff without the command or control. He’s regularly up to 99-100 as a starter with a plus slider, but he doesn’t repeat his long, loose arm action enough for even average control. He’s got a straight changeup but tried a splitter grip later in the spring to try to get more action on it. He earns a lot of Jeff Samardzija comparisons on build and as wide-receivers-turned-pitchers. Samardzija also took a long time to get a handle on his delivery so he could throw quality strikes, although he had the disadvantage of being on the 40-man from the day he signed. I love this pick for Colorado.

Outfielder Jared Thomas (2) of Texas lowered his hands a little bit this year and started squaring the ball up far more often, hitting the ball in the air more and going from four homers to 16. He did start expanding the zone more this year than he had as a freshman (he’s a draft-eligible sophom*ore) and will have to cut that back down as he moves to the high minors. He’s a 55 runner with a chance to stay up the middle.

South Carolina catcher Cole Messina (3) has big power, with 38 homers in the last two years and a big body to match. He starts with his hands high and his bat behind him, so it takes him a while to get the bat head to the zone. He’s really big for a catcher, listed at 6-foot, 230, and will have to work to maintain his conditioning, as he’s nothing special on defense as is.

Clemson third baseman Blake Wright (4) is power-over-hit with consistently poor walk rates. He’s a senior and I assume a money-saver at this spot, which I expect is also the case with Texas right-hander Lebarron Johnson Jr., (5), who can sit 94-95 as a starter but with 40 command and a fringy if hard slider as his main offspeed pitch.

George Mason left-hander Konner Eaton (6) struck out 28 percent of batters he faced this year but still posted a 5.66 ERA between his high walk and home run totals. He’s 91-93 with a chance for a 55 slider if he moves to the pen and picks up some arm speed. LSU right-hander Fidel Ulloa (7) pitched in the MLB Draft League this summer, where he was 93-96 with a cutter up to 91, working with a short arm action and a head snap at release. He could be a two-pitch reliever but I don’t see a starter here. UCLA right-hander Luke Jewett (8) would flash a plus slider when he was working as a reliever in 2023, but his stuff backed up when he moved to the rotation this spring and he doesn’t have nearly the command to make up for it. He’s also had arm issues dating back to high school. I’d just put him in the pen and let ’er rip.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Shortstop Kellon Lindsey (1) was probably the fastest player in the draft class, and his body and skillset earned him comparisons to a young Trea Turner. He’s a true 80 runner and has the actions and arm to stay at shortstop, while at the plate, he has quick hands and enough loft in his finish for extra-base power. His pitch recognition is behind that of most of the other top high school position players in the class, as he played weak competition in high school and missed almost all of last summer and fall between football and injuries.

Chase Harlan (3) has plus power but huge swing-and-miss issues that persisted into the spring, pushing him out of the top two rounds. He’s a third baseman now but big for the position and more likely to end up at first base. The Pennsylvania prep is committed to Clemson and only turned 18 a week before the draft.

Cal Poly left-hander Jakob Wright (4) is a groundball pitcher who throws a low-90s four-seamer, slider, cutter, and curveball, with a slot just below three-quarters, getting some deception from the delivery but also working away from contact, so he threw just 59 percent of pitches for strikes this year. If the control improves, he could stick as a starter. I was surprised at the groundball rate because his fastball doesn’t appear to have much sink to it.

Mississippi State reliever Brooks Auger (6) returned this year from Tommy John surgery and was up to 97 with two 55s in his slider and changeup. It’s a super-short arm action but aside from that I don’t see a reason he can’t start — and he did make five starts along with 15 relief appearances for the Bulldogs this year.

Oregon State shortstop Elijah Hainline (7) seems like a data pick — he had a very high Barrel rate, but swings and misses way too often at offspeed stuff and hit just .280/.402/.537 for the Beavers. Outfielder Brendan Tunink (8) is 5-11 with a long swing from the left side, loading his hands very deep, and had issues with contact even at some showcase events. The Illinois prep is also pitched in the past and he’s a plus runner, so he has the tools for right field, but the bat is a long way from there.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins went for prep outfielder P.J. Morlando (1) with the 16th pick, which I assume will be for an under-slot bonus. They are betting that he can return to the player he was in 2023. Morlando can show big power but changed his setup this year to go with an unfathomably wide stance to get to more contact, with the result that his in-game power tanked. I saw just average run times from Morlando but have heard others say he runs plus and can stick in center field, even with a fringy arm. If the Marlins can roll back the clock here with the 19-year-old, they will have ended up with great value for the pick.

I assume that’s under slot because their next pick, Carter Johnson (2), will have to be well over slot, as the Alabama commit offered one of the strongest hit tools in the high school class. He has excellent bat speed and started to drive the ball more later in the spring, although he can catch the ball out in front too often and give up some in-game power. He’ll go out as a shortstop but likely ends up at second or third. He was a first-rounder on my board and I think it’s worth the gamble to go under at 16 just to get Johnson.

Oregon State right-hander Aiden May (CBB) uses his plus slider very heavily, coming from a low three-quarters slot that makes it really effective against right-handers and puts a little life on his fastball. His changeup is fringy and he showed enough of a platoon split this year that I’d bet on a relief future.

Alabama third baseman Gage Miller (3) is one of the better overall hitters in the class, hitting good velocity, rarely punching out, and getting to power even though his exit velocities are more good than great. He’s a 45 defender at third and may have to move off the position. The fact that he hit good velocity is a big positive for him.

James Madison outfielder Fenwick Trimble (4) looks like a sneaky value here as he does not swing and miss in the zone and he hits the ball pretty hard, pretty consistently, although he needs to loft the ball a little more to convert that into more in-game power. The trouble with Trimble is that he’s probably limited to left field, although he did play center this spring.

Right-hander Grant Shephardson (5) is 92-95 with a 55 slider and throws both pitches for strikes, with a solid delivery he repeats well and that keeps him very online to the plate. He does need to develop his changeup and doesn’t have a ton of projection left, but I’m not sure he needs projection so much as he needs experience.

Georgia Tech shortstop Payton Green (6) started out strong but faded against better pitching in the ACC, making a lot of medium-quality contact and not quite showing the pitch selection he’d need to make that work. He’s probably a utility infielder in the end unless he gains enough strength to impact the ball more, but there’s a good chance he gets to the majors in that lesser role.

Portland right-hander Nick Brink (7) struck out 130 this spring, good for sixth in Division I, thanks to excellent deception and at least solid-average command. He’s 91-93 with an above-average changeup that has some late tumble. His slider is fringy and the fastball is light enough that he may end up too homer-prone to start. East Carolina outfielder Jacob Jenkins-Cowart (8) has the power to profile as a regular in a corner but goes out of the zone way too often and probably lacks the discipline to be an everyday guy in the end.

Milwaukee Brewers

Outfielder Braylon Payne (1) was probably the first real surprise of the first round for me, as he’s a very talented and highly projectable athlete, but there’s some question over how ready for pro ball his bat is. The Texas prep is at least a 70 runner who should end up a plus defender in center, but right now the swing is slappy and he puts the ball on the ground because he has yet to develop the strength required to hit the ball harder and/or in the air. I do like the long-term upside here, but he might need a lot of time. (I actually said Cleveland might take him with their second pick, but it turned out I got the wrong Braylon; they took pitcher Braylon Doughty instead. Partial credit?)

Tennessee first baseman Blake Burke (CBA) makes extremely hard, line-drive contact, with 30 doubles and 20 homers for the national champs this spring and I think he has more home-run power to come. He’s first base only and really struggled around the bag in two games when I saw him.

New Jersey prep right-hander Bryce Meccage (2) can sit 94-97 with effort but can also pitch at a lower gear and still get good ride on the pitch to miss bats, while he’ll show two potentially plus breaking balls with high spin rates that help the fastball play up. If the Brewers can coax him to take it easier and pace himself to work deeper into games, it should help him throw more strikes and perhaps stay healthy as well, with No. 2 starter upside in that scenario.

Chris Levonas (CBB) is also a New Jersey high school right-hander, up to 97 and sitting 92-95 with the changeup his best secondary pitch. He’ll need to figure out his breaking ball, as he throws a slider and curve now but they tend to blend together, showing the ability to spin either one enough to make it a weapon. He has as big a stride toward the plate as I can remember, so much so that I’m not sure if it’s helping him or hurting him. He was committed to Wake Forest.

Dallas Baptist right-hander Jaron DeBerry (3) was probably a money-saver, a senior starter who’s 90-92 from a low slot that gets some life on the pitch but works more with his slider and curveball, with 45 command. The Brewers announced Florida State DH Marco Dinges (4) as a catcher, where he’s played just briefly in the past, and where he’d have a chance to be an above-average regular if he can do it — although if he could do it, I assume Florida State would have given him more time back there. He’s got plus power and doesn’t swing and miss excessively. He can finish a little open after his stride, so closing that off could help him even more.

Old Dominion used John Holobetz (5) as both a starter and a reliever, but he should get the chance to start in the Brewers’ system. He’s 92-94, touching 96, with good ride and carry, with both the slider and cutter showing the potential to be at least 55s. He has to learn to pitch more to the very top of the zone with the fastball, as he gave up some hard contact when he missed too much toward the middle. Getting into a consistent role might help him, too.

Tulane right-hander Chandler Welch (6) throws strikes with a low-90s fastball and upper-80s cutter, with the cutter good enough to keep lefties in check, although he needs to tighten the slider and/or get more velocity to it so he can get righties out and perhaps be a back-end starter. Lefty Mason Molina (7) transferred from Texas Tech to Arkansas this spring but an ankle injury likely contributed to a big spike in his walk rate. He gets a lot of swings and misses on his 88-92 mph fastball and low-80s changeup. Without an average breaking ball, however, he showed a big reverse platoon split. I think this is a buy-low pick on a guy who was more effective a year earlier before the ankle injury.

New York Mets

The Mets landed Oklahoma State two-way player Carson Benge (1) in the first round and announced him strictly as an outfielder, which is the right call for his development and because he’s already had Tommy John surgery once. He has way more upside as a hitter, with plus bat speed, very hard contact, and excellent swing decisions. His average exit velocity was in the top 5 percent of eligible hitters in the class. His swing can get very slappy, causing him to meet the ball out front and put it in the air less often or just at a lower launch angle, so there’s untapped power in here for the Mets to unlock. He should be a plus defender in right and has at least a 60 arm. It’s a great pick for the spot.

Left-hander Jonathan Santucci (2) showed first-round stuff for Duke, striking out 35 percent of batters he faced with a plus slider and 55 changeup, but struggled once again with command and control. His last two seasons with the Blue Devils were interrupted by injuries, a fractured elbow in 2023 and a rib injury this May, although he came back from the latter one and was still sitting 95-96 in a short outing.

Mississippi State right-hander Nate Dohm (3) also missed time this spring, in his case with elbow inflammation that never required surgery. When healthy he’s 92-95 with a four-pitch mix, getting huge extension out of his delivery with strong secondary characteristics to the fastball. If healthy, he could be a No. 3 starter or better, but he has to show he can stay on the mound. NC State outfielder Eli Serrano III (4) was a draft-eligible sophom*ore who hit .285/.380/.431 this spring with just a 12.7 percent strikeout rate, with more hard contact than the low ISO might imply and a chance for additional power as he gets stronger.

Shortstop Trey Snyder (5) was the Mets’ lone high school selection in the top-10 rounds, an advanced hitter from Missouri with some projection left but no plus tools at the moment. He’s an average runner with 45 power, projecting to stay at shortstop with some coaching help. He’s committed to Tennessee. Georgia first baseman Corey Collins (6) was one of the best college senior prospects in the class, with excellent plate discipline and plus power from the left side, although he showed a big platoon split and is limited to first base.

USC right-hander Will Watson (7) transferred in from a junior college and was a swingman, sitting 94-97 with a plus slider and below-average command. His arm swing is long and he doesn’t seem to repeat it that well, but the stuff is premium and he should at least end up in a big-league bullpen. Oklahoma right-hander Ryan Lambert (8) barely pitched this spring but has been up to 101 in the Draft League, sitting 95-97 with a tight cutter/slider. It’s a tiny sample but he’s been filling up the zone this summer after walking 12 in 21 innings this spring.

Texas right-hander Tanner Witt (14) was a first-round talent out of high school and apparently turned down mid-first-round money, but he blew out his elbow in college and hasn’t been effective since his return, throwing just nine innings this spring, walking eight and allowing four homers, before undergoing a cleanup procedure on the elbow. He averaged just 91 mph this spring, so the hope is that he can at least get his arm strength back after this latest surgery.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies probably had the biggest surprise of the first round, taking the lowest-ranked player to go in the top-30 picks and one of the oldest high school players in the draft in outfielder Dante Nori (1), who will turn 20 in October. He’s an 80 runner with plus defense already in center field, and he shows some feel to hit, with enough strength right now for average power. He has a very wide setup at the plate and I think it’s hurting his in-game power because he can’t rotate his hips or get the full benefit of his strong lower half. The Phillies did take a 19-year-old high school hitter last year in the first round, and Aidan Miller might be their best prospect already, so they’ve earned a little slack.

Virginia prep outfielder Griffin Burkholder (2) has a great rotational swing and projects to at least 60 power once he’s filled out physically, and he’s a 70 runner who’ll stay in center — yes, two center fielders in two picks, but the Phillies love themselves some center fielders — so he’s got significant upside and could be a 20/30 guy. He had trouble with offspeed stuff at showcases, then missed part of the spring after a calf muscle injury. The Virginia prep is committed to West Virginia.

Oklahoma shortstop John Spikerman (3) missed about half of this spring with a broken hamate bone, although this was probably a reach in this round regardless. He’s a 70 runner with strong contact skills, whiffing on pitches in the zone under 10 percent of the time, with maybe average raw power that doesn’t translate into in-game power. He hit just eight homers in three years and his career ISO as a Sooner is .138, which isn’t going to improve with the wood bat unless the Phillies alter his swing, perhaps getting his hands lower at the start so he’s not coming down at the ball so much.

Virginia Tech infielder Carson DeMartini (4) has plus power but his hit tool lags, with a lot of in-zone miss, although he does have some plate discipline and tends to lay off pitches out of the zone. I like how his lower half works but he gets too locked into a single swing path. He had a shoulder injury last year and his arm wasn’t all the way back this spring, which may push him to the right side of the infield. All spring I wanted to make a GWAR joke about him and call him Carson “Sleazy” DeMartini, only to realize it was the wrong Virginia college for that.

Indiana outfielder Carter Mathison (5) had his worst year as a Hoosier, with a career-high 67 strikeouts and his worst showing in all three triple-slash categories at .260/.378/.498. Until he got to two strikes, he was his usual self, hitting for average and power while rarely chasing pitches out of the zone, but his two-strike approach is the opposite of what he needs — he gets more aggressive and is more prone to missing offspeed stuff in the zone. He made plenty of contact on the Cape last summer and got on base at a .408 clip, but without the power he’s shown with metal. There are several things to like here, though. You can’t just buy a two-strike approach at Target, but if the Phillies can help him improve even a little in that area, he has a lot of the ingredients to be an everyday center fielder.

Presbyterian College outfielder Joel Dragoo (7) exploded for a .401/.508/.797 line this spring, going from 10 homers total in his first two years with the Blue Hose to 18 this year, in part because he put the ball in the air nearly 70 percent of the time. He worked to get stronger in the previous offseason, as his swing always worked to lift the ball, but this year he got more leverage into the swing and started driving the ball more. He’ll have to do it against better pitching but he’s an interesting bat.

Georgia Tech lefty Camron Hill (8) is 6-6 with a big slider with a ton of tilt and a changeup with some late tumble, but he doesn’t throw strikes and looks like he’s never really found or been shown a consistent delivery. He’s been up to 96 and he’s very athletic, with age on his side as he just turned 21. If the Phillies could fix George Klassen, I’d like to see what they can do here. Iowa right-hander Marcus Morgan (9) walked 53 in 54 1/3 innings, so I don’t want to hear anything about Brody Brecht’s control. Morgan is up to 96 but leans heavily on a cutter, so he had something of a reverse platoon split this year, which included allowing a .510 OBP to right-handed batters. I don’t even know what to tell you.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates took the first high school player selected in this year’s draft, going for ceiling with Mississippi prep shortstop Konnor Griffin (1). If we were just drafting on tools, he might have gone 1-1 — that’s not just my take, but that of many scouts I spoke with, even ones who weren’t on him as a hitter. It’s 70 run, 70 arm, probably 70 power and at least 60 defense at short, although I’ve heard projections of him as a 70 defender in center. It’s just, in the words of one scout I spoke to, “I don’t know if that (expletive deleted) can hit!” He has very quick hands but his swing gets long and he had some trouble with swing decisions last summer. It is enormous upside, though, the kind of player you build your franchise around if it clicks.

Prep right-hander Levi Sterling (CBA) saw his stuff back up a little bit this spring, but the Texas commit has a plus changeup and won’t turn 18 until September, so he’s got a little more projection than most high school pitchers in the class. He also needs to develop a consistent breaking ball. He throws a slider and curve but neither is close to an average offering yet. He’s also played shortstop and may get a boost just from focusing on pitching.

Shortstop Wyatt Sanford (2) is a plus defender and runner who rarely misses fastballs at the plate and generally makes good swing decisions. The Texas prep’s bat speed is plus and his swing works, with some power projection still ahead of him. I thought he might get into the first round and this is a great pick in the second, offering some probability to balance out the risk with Griffin.

Wake Forest left-hander Josh Hartle (3) started the season as the Demon Deacons’ Friday night starter and was just assumed to be a first-rounder, but his stuff backed up just slightly and he didn’t have room for that to happen. His ERA more than doubled to 5.79 as he was hit harder and more often than he had been in the previous two years. He’s a command/finesse guy with a five-pitch mix, led by a changeup if we’re going by quality but by a cutter he overused this year that I think may also be a factor in his regression. This is a great pick in the hopes he bounces back.

Shortstop Eddie Rynders (4) has a big, long swing from the left side that produces plus power, with room to fill out and add more down the road. The Wisconsin prep is a solid-average runner with an above-average arm who should profile at third base defensively, with the power for the position but a big question around the hit tool. He’s committed to Kent State.

Clemson outfielder Will Taylor (5) is another bounceback bet, as he was easily a first-round talent in 2021 and supposedly turned down mid-first-round money, but chose to go play football as well as baseball at Clemson. He blew out his knee playing the wrong sport and lost the speed that was a big part of his value, and he hasn’t hit when he’s been able to play. His 2024 season ended early with a broken wrist.

UC-Santa Barbara right-hander Matt Ager (6) moved from the rotation to the bullpen partway through the year and was much more effective, pitching at 90-92 with a short slider with mostly downward break. He’d been a starter before but wasn’t completely back this spring from an oblique strain and could be another buy-low guy with a chance to start again and maybe end up a back-end guy. Minnesota left-hander Connor Wietgrefe (7) has been dealing in the Cape Cod League this summer after a solid spring for the Gophers. He’s a sinker/slider guy who throws strikes from a low three-quarters slot, enough of a package to hope he could end up a fifth starter.

St. Louis Cardinals

The theme of the Cardinals draft is “height ain’t nothin’ but a number,” as you could put any three of their top-10 picks in a trench coat and you might get Aaron Judge. The Cards really scored with their first pick, as preseason 1-1 candidate JJ Wetherholt (1) ended up available to them at pick seven after a spring where he missed nearly two months due to a hamstring injury — his second significant one in the last 12 months. Wetherholt might have had the best swing in the draft, making very consistent, high-quality contact, peaking at 111 mph, while rarely whiffing in-zone or chasing pitches outside of it. Even when he did play this spring, he was often less than 100 percent, but still hit .331/.472/.589 with just a 10.3 percent strikeout rate. He’s probably going to end up at second base, especially given who St. Louis has at shortstop, but he also only had one weekend all spring where he could play the field at full strength.

Right-hander Brian Holiday (3) pounded the strike zone in his one year at Oklahoma State after he transferred in from junior college, walking just 4.2 percent of batters he faced, and tied for seventh in Division I with 128 strikeouts. He’s 92-95 with his four-seamer and has an average slider and curveball, getting some decent ride on the fastball. He’s 5-11, at most, with no projection, and because his fastball comes in fairly flat he’s very flyball-prone (over 60 percent) and I worry that he’ll have the same issue as Mike McGreevy has had in the upper minors.

Arizona State catcher Ryan Campos (4) is listed at 5-8, so his strike zone is quite small, and he’s a disciplined hitter who only struck out 9 percent of the time this spring, with average power boosted by playing at a little altitude in Tempe. He’s a fringy defender and probably profiles as a backup, but if the defense improves I think the bat is enough to make him a soft regular.

Oklahoma left-hander Braden Davis (5) is also a sub-six-footer. He’s 91-93 with a 55 changeup and average slider, but he’s another extreme flyball pitcher and he doesn’t even have average control. Right-hander Andrew Dutkanych IV (7) took his name out of the draft in 2022 to go to Vanderbilt, probably passing up $1 million or more, then threw all of 16 innings in two years for the ‘Dores between a complete lack of control and two injuries, the second a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery this spring. Pre-injury he’d sit 93-95, topping out at 97, with a 55 curveball, but strikes have always been an issue going back to high school. Removing your name from the draft only hurts you, the player.

Left-hander Jack Findlay (8) is also coming back from Tommy John surgery, although he’s further along and could pitch somewhere this fall, such as in instructs. He was a command lefty with an upper-80s fastball and average slider before the injury.

San Diego Padres

Try not to let your surprise show, but the Padres led off their draft with two high school pitchers, including 6-4 lefty Kash Mayfield (1) with their first pick. He’s 93-98 with good ride on the pitch, showing a 55 slider and decent feel already for a changeup, with a low-effort delivery for someone throwing that hard. He’s 19 already and is committed to Oklahoma State. I think he would have been the No. 3 pitcher in the class if he were exactly the same pitcher but 21 rather than 19.

Right-hander Boston Bateman (2) is 6-8 and holds mid-90s late into his starts with a plus slider, extending well out front to get some extra boost from his size. He makes it even harder on hitters with a high slot, although he’ll need some coaching help to get his hips and legs better synced up with his arm. He’s committed to LSU.

North Carolina high school shortstop Cobb Hightower (3) has excellent bat speed and strong bat-to-ball skills with a bunch of 50/55 tools across the board, at least projecting to stay in the middle infield, where his bat gives him a chance to be a solid regular. He starts with a wide setup but moves his feet enough to get some leverage into the swing, with a good bat path for at least gap-to-gap power. He’s undersized and already 19 years old, though, so there are some things working against him. He’s committed to UNC.

Kansas State right-hander Tyson Neighbors (4) is a pure reliever who’s up to 98 with both a plus slider and curve and below-average command of everything. He missed some time this spring with an oblique strain, which probably didn’t help matters.

Tennessee outfielder Kavares Tears (4C) has plus raw power and 50/55 speed, but struck out a quarter of the time and lacked the same plate discipline as the other hitters in his lineup. He didn’t get a hit on a fastball over 94 until Omaha, the only one he had all season. Clark Candiotti (4C) is indeed Tom’s son, and Arizona was his fifth school in five years. He has three average pitches, working 92-94 with a slider and curve, potentially a fifth starter, although he’ll turn 24 in September so there’s definitely a short runway for him in the minors.

Kale Fountain (5) is a big, strong right-handed hitter with 70 or better raw power, with questions about the hit tool but enough strength and bat speed to get to the power. He’s a third baseman now but more likely to end up at first base or in left field, where the bat will still profile. He’s also committed to LSU. After Fountain they went with five straight seniors or grad students to save pool money for the high schoolers. It’s a pretty typical A.J. Preller draft, and a promising one thanks to the four high schoolers.

San Francisco Giants

Outfielder James Tibbs III (1) had a breakout year for Florida State, getting stronger and making better swing decisions, while showing a real two-strike approach that allowed him to walk 21 more times than he struck out. He has outstanding bat speed and showed he could hit good fastballs, as well. He’s a left or right fielder, so he has to hit, but he’s done that everywhere in the last 12 months. He should be one of the first position players in this class to reach the majors. They didn’t have second or third-round picks due to free-agent signings, which really hampered the scouting staff’s flexibility.

Outfielder Dakota Jordan (4) had the tools to go in the top-10 picks, but he struck out 84 times this spring. He’s got elite hand speed, 80 raw power, 70 speed, and at least a 60 arm. He has swing and pitch recognition issues, and he’s a longshot to get to that enormous ceiling.

University of San Diego outfielder Jakob Christian (5) is another bet that the Giants can cut down on a guy’s swing-and-miss. He’s got at least 60 raw power but whiffed a third of the time he swung this year, with disastrous whiff rates on offspeed stuff. He’s a right fielder so he’s got to cut down on the swing-and-miss to have a chance to be a regular.

Santa Clara third baseman Robert Hipwell (6) had a huge sophom*ore year in 2023 but tested positive for a PED near the end of that season and was suspended for the end of that year and about half of this spring, after which he just wasn’t the same hitter. Whether it was the magic beans or just some rust in a small sample size remains to be seen, but he has to hit as a corner infielder who might end up at first.

Southern Mississippi right-hander Niko Mazza (8) is undersized, listed at 5-11 and maybe a little shorter than that, but he goes right after guys, working 91-95 with some life up along with a short mid-80s cutter and a slightly bigger low-80s slider. It’s 45 control at best and he may be better suited for the bullpen, especially given how aggressively he seems to pitch.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals took Wake Forest shortstop/center fielder Seaver King (1) with the 10th pick, taking the first-year Demon Deacon, who transferred in from Division II Wingate, betting on his athleticism and upside after he hit .308/.377/.577 with a ton of hard contact. He swings hard and the ball comes off his bat really well, although he did tend to expand the zone too easily because he was such a good ‘bad-ball’ hitter for the level — which is not something I ever bank on continuing in pro ball.

They used the pick they acquired from Kansas City the day before the draft to take Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita (CBA), a solid defender with very high contact rates but also a huge allergy to taking pitches. He walked just 4.7 percent of the time this year and swung at pitches out of the zone 37 percent of the time. For a catcher to be a regular, the bar is really low, but Lomavita just swung at it.

Infielder Luke Dickerson (2) has a strong right-handed swing with the potential for 55 or 60 power down the road, and he’s a 60 runner underway who may end up in center field rather than staying at shortstop. The New Jersey prep has mostly showed average bat speed, however, and we’ll have to see if he can continue to hit when facing better velocity.

Texas Tech catcher Kevin Bazzell (3) was one of the best contact hitters in the draft, so clearly the Nats were targeting these guys, even after he missed some time with mono earlier in the spring. He doesn’t walk much and it’s below-average power, so his best path to being a regular is staying behind the plate, where he has the arm and agility to stick with some work.

Arizona left-hander Jackson Kent (4) had success in the Wildcats’ rotation this year with a four-pitch mix and enough strike-throwing to get by. He works with more control than command, showing a 90-93 mph fastball, a plus changeup, and two average breaking balls, so if he tightens up the command just a little bit he could be a mid-rotation starter. Shortstop Randal Diaz (5) is a plus defender whose power came on this spring after he recovered from a hamate injury in 2023. He’s from Bayamón, Puerto Rico, but came to Indiana State after he was undrafted out of high school.

Right-hander Davian Garcia (6) has been up to 98 with huge vertical break and an above-average slider, striking out 28.5 percent of batters in his one year at Florida Gulf Coast University after he spent two years at junior colleges. Right-hander Robert Cranz (7) transferred to Oklahoma State this year from Wichita State and was dominant out of the pen, with a 31.6 percent strikeout rate and 6.4 percent walk rate in 49 2/3 innings. He was almost all fastball/slider this spring, 92-94 with the slider a 55, but he has four pitches and may be able to start even with a relatively short arm action.

Iowa outfielder Sam Petersen (8) hit .333/.459/.571 for the Hawkeyes but was limited by injuries to 33 games. He’s a 70 runner and has 60 raw power, so there’s real upside here if he can just stay on the field.

(Top photos JJ Wetherholt, Charlie Condon: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images, Stew Milne / Associated Press)